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SNP surge confirmed by Ashcroft

A huge increase in support for the SNP, and corresponding drop in support for Labour, has been found by almost every poll in Scotland since the referendum. This Scotland wide swing has been echoed in an eagerly awaited multiple constituency poll by Tory peer Michael Ashcroft.
SNP surge confirmed by Ashcroft

Labour MPs - Way out

The Ashcroft poll selected 16 Scottish constituencies which had large majorities, mostly for Labour, after the 2010 General Election. However, as a twist many of the selected constituencies also voted Yes in the referendum. The results were quite startling: 15 of the seats would fall to the SNP including those currently held by Douglas Alexander, Margaret Curran, Anas Sarwar and Danny Alexander. The only seat not falling to the SNP, of the 16 polled, would be Glasgow North East which is held by Labour MP Willie Bain.

"While the Conservative vote (such as it was) has held up in these seats well, the Lib Dems have collapsed: only 12% of the party’s 2010 supporters said they would vote Lib Dem again; nearly half (47%) said they would switch to the SNP."
Michael Ashcroft

The swings to the SNP range from 21% for Airdrie & Shotts to 27% for Motherwell & Wishaw and Dundee West. However, Ashcroft has warned that even with these unprecedented swings to the SNP the existing Labour majorities are so large that the they would still have a slim lead.

Also, of particular note would be the predicted win for the SNP in Gordon which is the seated being contested by former First Minister Alex Salmond who is currently an MSP.

If the polls are correct it won't just be retiring MPs, such as Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, but most of the current crop from Labour will be on their "way out".



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